{
 "schema_version": "0.40",
 "paper": {
  "title": "Calibration of the prediction intervals of AutoMSARIMA in smooth on M1, M3, Tourism and M4",
  "contributions": [
   "C1",
   "C2",
   "C3",
   "C4",
   "C5",
   "C6"
  ],
  "highlights": [
   "C1",
   "C2",
   "C3",
   "C5"
  ],
  "autonomy": "human_supervised",
  "contribution_record": "complete",
  "origin": "native",
  "exploration": {
   "lab_record": "A7",
   "questions": 5,
   "hypotheses": {
    "total": 11,
    "supported": 6,
    "not_supported": 3,
    "inconclusive": 2,
    "revised": 0,
    "abandoned": 0,
    "open": 0,
    "from_exploration": 8
   },
   "tests": {
    "total": 12,
    "supported": 6,
    "not_supported": 3,
    "inconclusive": 3
   },
   "runs": {
    "total": 49,
    "confirmatory": 13,
    "exploratory": 36,
    "failed": 3
   }
  },
  "study": "msarima-interval-calibration",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "classification": {
   "subfield": "openalex:subfields/1803",
   "keywords": [
    "prediction intervals",
    "probabilistic forecast calibration",
    "ARIMA",
    "state space models",
    "forecasting software",
    "M competitions"
   ],
   "topics": [
    "openalex:T10282",
    "openalex:T10243",
    "openalex:T11918"
   ]
  },
  "declarations": {
   "funding": [],
   "competing_interests": "The guarantor is the author and maintainer of the smooth package that the study evaluates."
  },
  "id": "entrylib:2026.000001",
  "correction_reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations.",
  "version": 3,
  "date": "2026-11-10",
  "status": "corrected",
  "previous_version": "entrylib:2026.000001@v2",
  "status_notice": {
   "date": "2026-11-10",
   "reason_code": "correction",
   "statement": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations.",
   "issued_by": "Ivan Svetunkov (ORCID 0000-0001-7826-0281)"
  },
  "changes": [
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_b100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_b100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_b100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_b100/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_b300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_b300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_b300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_b300/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_o100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_o100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_o100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_o100/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_o300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_o300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_o300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/m_o300/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_b100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_b100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_b100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_b100/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_b300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_b300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_b300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_b300/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_o100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_o100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_o100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_o100/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_o300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_o300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_o300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/w_o300/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_b100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_b100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_b100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_b100/variable",
    "value": "largest MCE over the 11 processes",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_b300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_b300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_b300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_b300/variable",
    "value": "largest MCE over the 11 processes",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_o100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_o100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_o100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_o100/variable",
    "value": "largest MCE over the 11 processes",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_o300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_o300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_o300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/0/test/quantities/x_o300/variable",
    "value": "largest MCE over the 11 processes",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/1/test/quantities/fa/conditions/data",
    "value": "D6",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/1/test/quantities/fa/conditions/method",
    "value": "D10",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/1/test/quantities/fa/variable",
    "value": "80% coverage in the low tercile minus that in the high tercile",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/1/test/quantities/fm/conditions/data",
    "value": "D6",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/1/test/quantities/fm/conditions/method",
    "value": "ETS(MNN)",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/1/test/quantities/fm/variable",
    "value": "80% coverage in the low tercile minus that in the high tercile",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/2/test/quantities/ma/conditions/data",
    "value": "D6",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/2/test/quantities/ma/conditions/method",
    "value": "D10",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/2/test/quantities/ma/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/2/test/quantities/md/conditions/data",
    "value": "D6",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/2/test/quantities/md/conditions/method",
    "value": "D11",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/2/test/quantities/md/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/2/test/quantities/sd/conditions/data",
    "value": "D6",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/2/test/quantities/sd/conditions/method",
    "value": "D11",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/2/test/quantities/sd/variable",
    "value": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb108/conditions/D21",
    "value": "1.0.8",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb108/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb108/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb108/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb108/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb130/conditions/D21",
    "value": "1.3.0",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb130/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb130/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb130/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eb130/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo108/conditions/D21",
    "value": "1.0.8",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo108/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo108/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo108/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo108/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo130/conditions/D21",
    "value": "1.3.0",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo130/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo130/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo130/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/eo130/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb108/conditions/D21",
    "value": "1.0.8",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb108/conditions/D3",
    "value": "S",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb108/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb108/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb108/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb130/conditions/D21",
    "value": "1.3.0",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb130/conditions/D3",
    "value": "S",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb130/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb130/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/3/test/quantities/sb130/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ma/conditions/data",
    "value": "D9",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ma/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ma/conditions/method",
    "value": "D10",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ma/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ms/conditions/data",
    "value": "D9",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ms/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ms/conditions/method",
    "value": "D8",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ms/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/sa/conditions/data",
    "value": "D9",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/sa/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/sa/conditions/method",
    "value": "D10",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/sa/variable",
    "value": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ss/conditions/data",
    "value": "D9",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ss/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ss/conditions/method",
    "value": "D8",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/4/test/quantities/ss/variable",
    "value": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma100/conditions/interval",
    "value": "analytic",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma100/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma300/conditions/interval",
    "value": "analytic",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma300/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma50/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma50/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma50/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma50/conditions/interval",
    "value": "analytic",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ma50/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms100/conditions/interval",
    "value": "simulated interval",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms100/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms300/conditions/interval",
    "value": "simulated interval",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms300/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms50/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms50/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms50/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms50/conditions/interval",
    "value": "simulated interval",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ms50/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa100/conditions/interval",
    "value": "analytic",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa100/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa300/conditions/interval",
    "value": "analytic",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa300/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa50/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa50/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa50/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa50/conditions/interval",
    "value": "analytic",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/wa50/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws100/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws100/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws100/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws100/conditions/interval",
    "value": "simulated interval",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws100/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws300/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws300/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws300/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws300/conditions/interval",
    "value": "simulated interval",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws300/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws50/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws50/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws50/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws50/conditions/interval",
    "value": "simulated interval",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/6/test/quantities/ws50/variable",
    "value": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/12/test/quantities/s/conditions/D3",
    "value": "S",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/12/test/quantities/s/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/12/test/quantities/s/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/12/test/quantities/s/conditions/nominal level",
    "value": 0.8,
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/12/test/quantities/s/variable",
    "value": "D4",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/e/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/e/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/e/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/e/conditions/nominal level",
    "value": 0.8,
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/e/variable",
    "value": "D4",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/t/conditions/D3",
    "value": "T",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/t/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/t/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/t/conditions/nominal level",
    "value": 0.8,
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/13/test/quantities/t/variable",
    "value": "D4",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mb/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mb/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mb/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "predict()",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mb/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mb/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mo/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mo/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mo/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "predict()",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mo/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/mo/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/pb/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/pb/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/pb/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "predict()",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/pb/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/pb/variable",
    "value": "scaled pinball relative to the true model with true parameters",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/po/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/po/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/po/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "predict()",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/po/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/po/variable",
    "value": "scaled pinball relative to the true model with true parameters",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/rb/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/rb/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/rb/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "reforecast",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/rb/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/rb/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/ro/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/ro/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/ro/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "reforecast",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/ro/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/ro/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/sb/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/sb/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/sb/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "reforecast",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/sb/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/sb/variable",
    "value": "scaled pinball relative to the true model with true parameters",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/so/conditions/D3",
    "value": "E",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/so/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/so/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "reforecast",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/so/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "optimal",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/14/test/quantities/so/variable",
    "value": "scaled pinball relative to the true model with true parameters",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/15/test/quantities/w/conditions/D3",
    "value": "W",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/15/test/quantities/w/conditions/case",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/15/test/quantities/w/conditions/nominal level",
    "value": 0.8,
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/15/test/quantities/w/variable",
    "value": "D4",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cp/conditions/data",
    "value": "D5",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cp/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "predict()",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cp/conditions/initial",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cp/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cp/conditions/method",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cp/conditions/nominal level",
    "value": 0.8,
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cp/variable",
    "value": "D4",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cr/conditions/data",
    "value": "D5",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cr/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "D12",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cr/conditions/initial",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cr/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cr/conditions/method",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cr/conditions/nominal level",
    "value": 0.8,
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/cr/variable",
    "value": "D4",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pp/conditions/data",
    "value": "D5",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pp/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "predict()",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pp/conditions/initial",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pp/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pp/conditions/method",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pp/variable",
    "value": "D14",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pr/conditions/data",
    "value": "D5",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pr/conditions/forecast",
    "value": "D12",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pr/conditions/initial",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pr/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "remove",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pr/conditions/method",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/16/test/quantities/pr/variable",
    "value": "D14",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ma/conditions/data",
    "value": "D9",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ma/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ma/conditions/method",
    "value": "D10",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ma/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ms/conditions/data",
    "value": "D9",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ms/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ms/conditions/method",
    "value": "D8",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ms/variable",
    "value": "D13",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/sa/conditions/data",
    "value": "D9",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/sa/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/sa/conditions/method",
    "value": "D10",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/sa/variable",
    "value": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ss/conditions/data",
    "value": "D9",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "add",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ss/conditions/initial states",
    "value": "backcasting",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ss/conditions/method",
    "value": "D8",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/claims/17/test/quantities/ss/variable",
    "value": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/definitions/0/definition",
    "value": "The quantiles of `predict(interval=\"prediction\")` of a pure ARIMA in smooth 1.3.0, which dispatches to the approximate interval. The ARIMA is the state space model\n$$\\begin{aligned} y_t &= w^\\top v_{t-l} + \\epsilon_t, \\\\ v_t &= F v_{t-l} + g \\epsilon_t, \\\\ \\epsilon_t &\\sim N(0, \\sigma^2). \\end{aligned}$$\nThe quantile at level $\\tau$ and horizon $h$ is\n$$q_{\\tau,h} = \\hat y_{T+h|T} + \\Phi^{-1}(\\tau) \\sqrt{V_h}, \\qquad V_h = \\hat\\sigma^2 \\frac{T}{T-k} c_h,$$\nwith\n$$\\hat\\sigma^2 = \\frac{1}{T} \\sum_{t=1}^{T} e_t^2, \\qquad c_h = 1 + \\sum_{j=1}^{h-1} \\left(w^\\top F^{j-1} g\\right)^2,$$\nwhere $k$ is the number of estimated parameters and $c_h$ the $h$-th diagonal element of the analytic covariance of the state space model, written here for a model with lag 1.",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/definitions/3/definition",
    "value": "For the quantile $q_{\\tau,j}$ at level $\\tau$ and horizon $j$, the share of holdout observations at or below it,\n$$c_\\tau = \\frac{1}{h} \\sum_{j=1}^{h} 1\\left(y_{T+j} \\le q_{\\tau,j}\\right),$$\naveraged first within a series and then over series. cov80 is $c_{0.9} - c_{0.1}$, the coverage of the central 80% interval; q50 is $c_{0.5}$.",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/definitions/10/definition",
    "value": "ADAM with `model=\"NNN\"`, an ARIMA and `distribution=\"dlnorm\"`: the ARIMA applies to the logarithms,\n$$\\begin{aligned} \\log y_t &= w^\\top v_{t-l} + \\log(1+\\epsilon_t), \\\\ v_t &= F v_{t-l} + g \\log(1+\\epsilon_t), \\\\ 1+\\epsilon_t &\\sim \\mathrm{logN}(-\\sigma^2/2, \\sigma^2), \\end{aligned}$$\nso the scale of the error is proportional to the level. In the comparisons with fixed orders, the orders and constant are those [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] selects on the same series.",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/definitions/12/definition",
    "value": "Mean calibration error over the 99 quantile levels $\\tau = 0.01, \\dots, 0.99$:\n$$\\mathrm{MCE} = \\frac{1}{99} \\sum_{\\tau} \\left|\\bar c_\\tau - \\tau\\right|,$$\nwith $\\bar c_\\tau$ the [[D4:coverage]] of $q_\\tau$.",
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/evidence/0/tables",
    "value": [
     {
      "id": "T1",
      "description": "Case T: the true orders with the true parameters, pooled over the 11 Gaussian processes",
      "row_labels": [
       "T",
       "D3",
       "initial states"
      ],
      "columns": [
       {
        "variable": "D4",
        "conditions": {
         "nominal level": 0.8
        }
       },
       "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
       "D13",
       "largest MCE over the 11 processes"
      ],
      "rows": [
       {
        "id": "r1",
        "label": [
         100,
         "T",
         "backcasting"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.7997,
         1.0018975430750083,
         0.002347566574839311,
         0.014508136924803598
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r2",
        "label": [
         100,
         "T",
         "optimal"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.7972,
         0.9965079650994704,
         0.002378711355984074,
         0.014505611672278346
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r3",
        "label": [
         300,
         "T",
         "backcasting"
        ],
        "values": [
         null,
         1.000745813821255,
         0.0006805683093562026,
         0.0058672839506172785
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r4",
        "label": [
         300,
         "T",
         "optimal"
        ],
        "values": [
         null,
         0.999189350813739,
         0.0008571064177124785,
         0.0058672839506172785
        ]
       }
      ],
      "artefact": "A10"
     }
    ],
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/evidence/1/tables",
    "value": [
     {
      "id": "T1",
      "description": "Case S: orders selected by AutoMSARIMA, pooled over the 11 Gaussian processes",
      "row_labels": [
       "T",
       "D3",
       "initial states"
      ],
      "columns": [
       {
        "variable": "D4",
        "conditions": {
         "nominal level": 0.8
        }
       }
      ],
      "rows": [
       {
        "id": "r1",
        "label": [
         100,
         "S",
         "backcasting"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.7559267676767676
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r2",
        "label": [
         100,
         "S",
         "optimal"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.7572
        ]
       }
      ],
      "artefact": "A10"
     }
    ],
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/evidence/2/tables",
    "value": [
     {
      "id": "T1",
      "description": "Case E: the analytic interval against the simulated interval of the same fit, pooled over the 11 Gaussian processes",
      "row_labels": [
       "T",
       "D3",
       "initial states",
       "interval"
      ],
      "columns": [
       "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
       "D13"
      ],
      "rows": [
       {
        "id": "r1",
        "label": [
         50,
         "E",
         "backcasting",
         "analytic"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.9571865764457477,
         0.019618406285072953
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r2",
        "label": [
         50,
         "E",
         "backcasting",
         "simulated interval"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.9570246020280071,
         0.0196577134986226
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r3",
        "label": [
         100,
         "E",
         "backcasting",
         "analytic"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.98068173371577,
         0.00999872461993675
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r4",
        "label": [
         100,
         "E",
         "backcasting",
         "simulated interval"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.9804924240470849,
         0.010021553923069082
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r5",
        "label": [
         300,
         "E",
         "backcasting",
         "analytic"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.9966012447878664,
         0.0026437863483317944
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r6",
        "label": [
         300,
         "E",
         "backcasting",
         "simulated interval"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.9964067752797617,
         0.002688526680950923
        ]
       }
      ],
      "artefact": "A10"
     }
    ],
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/evidence/3/tables",
    "value": [
     {
      "id": "T1",
      "description": "Cases T and E, pooled over the 11 Gaussian processes",
      "row_labels": [
       "T",
       "D3",
       "initial states"
      ],
      "columns": [
       {
        "variable": "D4",
        "conditions": {
         "nominal level": 0.8
        }
       }
      ],
      "rows": [
       {
        "id": "r1",
        "label": [
         100,
         "E",
         "backcasting"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.7700555555555556
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r2",
        "label": [
         100,
         "T",
         "backcasting"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.7996717171717171
        ]
       }
      ],
      "artefact": "A10"
     }
    ],
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/evidence/4/tables",
    "value": [
     {
      "id": "T1",
      "description": "Case E with predict() and with reforecast, pooled over the 11 Gaussian processes",
      "row_labels": [
       "T",
       "D3",
       "initial states",
       "forecast"
      ],
      "columns": [
       "D13",
       "scaled pinball relative to the true model with true parameters"
      ],
      "rows": [
       {
        "id": "r1",
        "label": [
         100,
         "E",
         "backcasting",
         "predict()"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.00999872461993675,
         1.043170004368166
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r2",
        "label": [
         100,
         "E",
         "backcasting",
         "reforecast"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.02651617181920213,
         1.9575365936241682
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r3",
        "label": [
         100,
         "E",
         "optimal",
         "predict()"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.00850140291806958,
         1.0578011747050307
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r4",
        "label": [
         100,
         "E",
         "optimal",
         "reforecast"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.005329303132333438,
         1.3961320998657083
        ]
       }
      ],
      "artefact": "A10"
     }
    ],
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/evidence/5/tables",
    "value": [
     {
      "id": "T1",
      "description": "Case W (fixed wrong models) and the true model with true parameters, pooled over the 11 Gaussian processes",
      "row_labels": [
       "T",
       "D3"
      ],
      "columns": [
       {
        "variable": "D4",
        "conditions": {
         "nominal level": 0.8
        }
       },
       "share of holdout observations at or below the 0.5 quantile"
      ],
      "rows": [
       {
        "id": "r1",
        "label": [
         100,
         "W"
        ],
        "values": [
         0.6756041666666667,
         0.4281
        ]
       },
       {
        "id": "r2",
        "label": [
         100,
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       "share of series where R and Python select the same model",
       {
        "variable": "D4",
        "conditions": {
         "nominal level": 0.8,
         "implementation": "R"
        }
       },
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        "variable": "D4",
        "conditions": {
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        "values": [
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      "artefact": "A10"
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    ],
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/evidence/18/tables",
    "value": [
     {
      "id": "T1",
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      "columns": [
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      "artefact": "A10"
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    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   },
   {
    "op": "replace",
    "path": "/evidence/19/tables",
    "value": [
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      "id": "T1",
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      "artefact": "A10"
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      "id": "T3",
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      "row_labels": [
       "panel",
       "line"
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      "columns": [
       "D13"
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      "rows": [
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       },
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        "id": "r3",
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        ],
        "values": [
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       },
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        "id": "r4",
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         "low level tercile",
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        "id": "r8",
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       },
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        "id": "r9",
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       },
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        "id": "r10",
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       },
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       }
      ],
      "artefact": "A10"
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     {
      "id": "T4",
      "description": "MCE of each curve of figure A6",
      "row_labels": [
       "panel",
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      "columns": [
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       },
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       },
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       },
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       }
      ],
      "artefact": "A10"
     }
    ],
    "reason": "The test quantities of the claims bound result entries that version 2 had turned into table cells; they now bind the cells, which keep the full precision the verdicts were computed at, and each table names the CSV of the lab results (A10) as its source. The defining equations of D1, D4, D11 and D13 are set as displayed equations."
   }
  ]
 },
 "contributors": [
  {
   "id": "P1",
   "type": "human",
   "name": "Ivan Svetunkov",
   "positions": [
    "guarantor",
    "supervisor"
   ],
   "orcid": "0000-0001-7826-0281",
   "credit_roles": [
    "conceptualization",
    "supervision",
    "validation"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "P2",
   "type": "agent",
   "name": "Research agent (Claude Code)",
   "positions": [
    "author"
   ],
   "models": [
    {
     "model": "M1",
     "role": "sole"
    }
   ],
   "run_period": {
    "start": "2026-11-05",
    "end": "2026-11-09"
   },
   "tools": [
    "code_execution",
    "file_access"
   ],
   "record_source": "self_reported",
   "credit_roles": [
    "formal_analysis",
    "investigation",
    "software",
    "writing_original_draft"
   ],
   "ai_tasks": [
    {
     "task": "analysis",
     "extent": "full"
    },
    {
     "task": "writing",
     "extent": "full"
    },
    {
     "task": "json_preparation",
     "extent": "full"
    }
   ],
   "system": {
    "name": "Claude Code"
   }
  }
 ],
 "models": [
  {
   "id": "M1",
   "provider": "Anthropic",
   "name": "Claude Opus",
   "version": "5.5",
   "identifier": "claude-opus-5-5",
   "accessed": "2026-11-05"
  }
 ],
 "definitions": [
  {
   "id": "D1",
   "term": "MSARIMA analytic interval",
   "kind": "method",
   "source": "B6",
   "definition": "The quantiles of `predict(interval=\"prediction\")` of a pure ARIMA in smooth 1.3.0, which dispatches to the approximate interval. The ARIMA is the state space model\n$$\\begin{aligned} y_t &= w^\\top v_{t-l} + \\epsilon_t, \\\\ v_t &= F v_{t-l} + g \\epsilon_t, \\\\ \\epsilon_t &\\sim N(0, \\sigma^2). \\end{aligned}$$\nThe quantile at level $\\tau$ and horizon $h$ is\n$$q_{\\tau,h} = \\hat y_{T+h|T} + \\Phi^{-1}(\\tau) \\sqrt{V_h}, \\qquad V_h = \\hat\\sigma^2 \\frac{T}{T-k} c_h,$$\nwith\n$$\\hat\\sigma^2 = \\frac{1}{T} \\sum_{t=1}^{T} e_t^2, \\qquad c_h = 1 + \\sum_{j=1}^{h-1} \\left(w^\\top F^{j-1} g\\right)^2,$$\nwhere $k$ is the number of estimated parameters and $c_h$ the $h$-th diagonal element of the analytic covariance of the state space model, written here for a model with lag 1."
  },
  {
   "id": "D2",
   "term": "known-model simulation",
   "kind": "data",
   "definition": "Gaussian ARIMA series with $\\sigma = 10$ generated from 11 data generating processes (white noise with a constant, random walk with and without drift, AR(1), MA(1), ARIMA(0,1,1), ARIMA(1,1,0), ARIMA(1,1,1), ARIMA(0,2,2), seasonal SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)$_{12}$ and SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)$_{12}$) plus an IMA(1,1) with Student-t errors on 4 degrees of freedom; in-sample lengths $T$ of 15, 25, 50, 100 and 300, holdout of 18; 2,000 replicates per process and length with seed 20261105 unless stated."
  },
  {
   "id": "D3",
   "term": "cases T, E, S, W",
   "kind": "design",
   "definition": "What the fitted AutoMSARIMA or MSARIMA knows about the data generating process of the [[D2:known-model simulation]]: T, true orders and true AR, MA and constant parameters with initial states and scale estimated; E, true orders with estimated parameters; S, orders selected by AutoMSARIMA; W, a fixed wrong model for each process. Each with backcasting or optimal initial states."
  },
  {
   "id": "D4",
   "term": "coverage",
   "kind": "variable",
   "definition": "For the quantile $q_{\\tau,j}$ at level $\\tau$ and horizon $j$, the share of holdout observations at or below it,\n$$c_\\tau = \\frac{1}{h} \\sum_{j=1}^{h} 1\\left(y_{T+j} \\le q_{\\tau,j}\\right),$$\naveraged first within a series and then over series. cov80 is $c_{0.9} - c_{0.1}$, the coverage of the central 80% interval; q50 is $c_{0.5}$."
  },
  {
   "id": "D5",
   "term": "benchmark",
   "kind": "data",
   "definition": "The 5,315 series of M1 (1,001), M3 (3,003) and Tourism (1,311) from fcompdata 0.1.4, with their own holdouts and seasonal periods; lags $(1, m)$ for seasonal series.",
   "members": [
    "D18",
    "D19",
    "D20"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "D6",
   "term": "M4 sample",
   "kind": "data",
   "source": "B4",
   "definition": "1,500 series each of the yearly, quarterly and monthly M4 series, drawn with seed 20261105 without replacement, with the M4 holdouts."
  },
  {
   "id": "D7",
   "term": "level terciles",
   "kind": "design",
   "definition": "Series split into terciles of the [[D17:level ratio]] across the series of a data set; cov80 reported for each tercile, and the spread as the largest minus the smallest of the three."
  },
  {
   "id": "D8",
   "term": "auto.adam error selection",
   "kind": "method",
   "source": "B6",
   "definition": "R `auto.adam(y, model=\"NNN\", lags, distribution=c(\"dnorm\",\"dlnorm\"), initial=\"backcasting\")` of smooth 4.6: the ARIMA orders and constant are selected by AICc for each distribution with the maxima of auto.msarima (AR (3,3), I (2,1), MA (3,3)), then the distribution with the lower AICc is kept; with dnorm the model is the [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] model, with dlnorm it is the [[D11:log-normal ARIMA]]. Quantiles from `forecast(interval=\"prediction\")`."
  },
  {
   "id": "D9",
   "term": "fresh M4 sample",
   "kind": "data",
   "source": "B4",
   "definition": "1,500 series each of the yearly, quarterly and monthly M4 series, drawn with seed 20261107 from the series not in the [[D6:M4 sample]], so disjoint from it."
  },
  {
   "id": "D10",
   "term": "AutoMSARIMA",
   "kind": "method",
   "source": "B6",
   "definition": "`AutoMSARIMA(lags, initial)` in Python and `auto.msarima()` in R of smooth 1.3.0 / 4.6: ARIMA orders up to AR (3,3), I (2,1), MA (3,3) and a constant selected by AICc, normal errors, the [[D1:MSARIMA analytic interval]] for the quantiles. Backcasting initial states unless stated."
  },
  {
   "id": "D11",
   "term": "log-normal ARIMA",
   "kind": "method",
   "source": "B6",
   "definition": "ADAM with `model=\"NNN\"`, an ARIMA and `distribution=\"dlnorm\"`: the ARIMA applies to the logarithms,\n$$\\begin{aligned} \\log y_t &= w^\\top v_{t-l} + \\log(1+\\epsilon_t), \\\\ v_t &= F v_{t-l} + g \\log(1+\\epsilon_t), \\\\ 1+\\epsilon_t &\\sim \\mathrm{logN}(-\\sigma^2/2, \\sigma^2), \\end{aligned}$$\nso the scale of the error is proportional to the level. In the comparisons with fixed orders, the orders and constant are those [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] selects on the same series."
  },
  {
   "id": "D12",
   "term": "reforecast",
   "kind": "method",
   "definition": "`reforecast()` of smooth: draws the parameters 300 times from a normal distribution with the estimated covariance of the parameters, reapplies the model with each draw and simulates the predictive distribution, so that the quantiles include the uncertainty of the parameters."
  },
  {
   "id": "D13",
   "term": "MCE",
   "kind": "variable",
   "definition": "Mean calibration error over the 99 quantile levels $\\tau = 0.01, \\dots, 0.99$:\n$$\\mathrm{MCE} = \\frac{1}{99} \\sum_{\\tau} \\left|\\bar c_\\tau - \\tau\\right|,$$\nwith $\\bar c_\\tau$ the [[D4:coverage]] of $q_\\tau$."
  },
  {
   "id": "D14",
   "term": "scaled pinball",
   "kind": "variable",
   "definition": "Pinball loss averaged over the 99 quantile levels and the horizons, divided by the mean absolute first difference of the in-sample data for real series; in the simulation, by $\\sigma$, and relpin is its ratio to the pinball of the true predictive distribution."
  },
  {
   "id": "D15",
   "term": "ETS forced and selected",
   "kind": "method",
   "source": "B6",
   "definition": "ETS of smooth with backcasting: AutoADAM-style selection among ETS models (`ES(model=\"ZXZ\")`, or ZXN for non-seasonal series), or ETS(ANN) or ETS(MNN) fitted to every series."
  },
  {
   "id": "D16",
   "term": "other ARIMA implementations",
   "kind": "method",
   "definition": "statsforecast AutoARIMA, pmdarima auto_arima and skforecast Arima, as run in the notebook of the smooth benchmark of 2026-11-05, whose saved forecasts were read."
  },
  {
   "id": "D17",
   "term": "level ratio",
   "kind": "variable",
   "definition": "Mean of the last third of the in-sample data of a series divided by the mean of all its in-sample data."
  },
  {
   "id": "D18",
   "term": "M1",
   "kind": "data",
   "source": "B1",
   "definition": "The 1,001 series of the M1 competition with their holdouts."
  },
  {
   "id": "D19",
   "term": "M3",
   "kind": "data",
   "source": "B2",
   "definition": "The 3,003 series of the M3 competition with their holdouts."
  },
  {
   "id": "D20",
   "term": "Tourism",
   "kind": "data",
   "source": "B3",
   "definition": "The 1,311 series of the tourism forecasting competition with their holdouts."
  },
  {
   "id": "D21",
   "term": "smooth 1.0.8 and 1.3.0",
   "kind": "setting",
   "definition": "Python smooth at tag v1.0.8-py (a separate worktree with its own environment) and at 1.3.0 (commit 634657d8 of openforecast-org/smooth)."
  }
 ],
 "claims": [
  {
   "id": "C1",
   "statement": "With the true orders and true parameters, the [[D1:MSARIMA analytic interval]] is calibrated over the 99 quantiles in the [[D2:known-model simulation]] at $T$ of 100 and 300: [[D13:MCE]] lies between 0.0007 and 0.0024 and the ratio of the interval width to the theoretical width between 0.9965 and 1.0019, with backcasting and with optimal initial states.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D1",
    "relation": "is calibrated, given the true orders and parameters, on",
    "object": "D13",
    "comparator": null,
    "conditions": [
     "D2"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "principal",
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "simulation",
     "evidence": "E1",
     "results": [
      "E1.T1.r3",
      "E1.T1.r2",
      "E1.T1.r1"
     ],
     "artefacts": [
      "A3",
      "A8"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H1",
    "outcome": "supported"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T11:37:01Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "2000 replicates per cell, h=1..18, fixed seed 20261105, no interim analysis"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "m_b100": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "backcasting"
      }
     },
     "x_b100": {
      "variable": "largest MCE over the 11 processes",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "backcasting"
      }
     },
     "w_b100": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "backcasting"
      }
     },
     "m_o100": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "optimal"
      }
     },
     "x_o100": {
      "variable": "largest MCE over the 11 processes",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "optimal"
      }
     },
     "w_o100": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "optimal"
      }
     },
     "m_b300": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "backcasting"
      }
     },
     "x_b300": {
      "variable": "largest MCE over the 11 processes",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "backcasting"
      }
     },
     "w_b300": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "backcasting"
      }
     },
     "m_o300": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "optimal"
      }
     },
     "x_o300": {
      "variable": "largest MCE over the 11 processes",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "optimal"
      }
     },
     "w_o300": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "optimal"
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "m_b100<0.01 and x_b100<0.02 and abs(w_b100-1)<0.02 and m_o100<0.01 and x_o100<0.02 and abs(w_o100-1)<0.02 and m_b300<0.01 and x_b300<0.02 and abs(w_b300-1)<0.02 and m_o300<0.01 and x_o300<0.02 and abs(w_o300-1)<0.02",
    "not_supported": "m_b100>0.02 or x_b100>0.04 or abs(w_b100-1)>0.04 or m_o100>0.02 or x_o100>0.04 or abs(w_o100-1)>0.04 or m_b300>0.02 or x_b300>0.04 or abs(w_b300-1)>0.04 or m_o300>0.02 or x_o300>0.04 or abs(w_o300-1)>0.04",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL4"
   },
   "depends_on": [
    "C7",
    "C12"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "simulated Gaussian ARIMA and SARIMA series",
    "conditions": [
     "holdout of 18",
     "smooth 1.3.0 (Python)",
     "case T of the cases T, E, S, W",
     "T of 100 and 300"
    ]
   },
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "high",
     "rationale": "2,000 replicates of each of 11 processes; the tolerance fixed in plan PL4 was met by every quantity."
    }
   ],
   "assumptions": [
    "C24"
   ],
   "relations": [
    {
     "type": "addresses",
     "reference": "B6",
     "note": "The book derives the interval; this checks the implementation of smooth 1.3.0 against it."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C2",
   "statement": "On the [[D6:M4 sample]], the 80% [[D4:coverage]] of [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] falls with the [[D17:level ratio]]: 0.813, 0.700 and 0.554 from the lowest to the highest of the [[D7:level terciles]], while ETS(MNN) of [[D15:ETS forced and selected]], whose error scale follows the level, covers 0.764, 0.778 and 0.814.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D10",
    "relation": "has 80% coverage falling with",
    "object": "D4",
    "comparator": "D15",
    "conditions": [
     "D6",
     "D7"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "principal",
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E8",
     "results": [
      "E8.T1.r1",
      "E8.T1.r2"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H8",
    "outcome": "supported"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T18:40:25Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "4500 M4 series (1500 yearly, quarterly, monthly), seed 20261105, terciles of the recent level over the mean level from the first method"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "fa": {
      "variable": "80% coverage in the low tercile minus that in the high tercile",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D6",
       "method": "D10"
      }
     },
     "fm": {
      "variable": "80% coverage in the low tercile minus that in the high tercile",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D6",
       "method": "ETS(MNN)"
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "fa >= 0.10 and fm <= 0.05",
    "not_supported": "fa < 0.05",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL12",
    "flags": [
     "code_changed_after_plan"
    ]
   },
   "depends_on": [
    "C8"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M4 yearly, quarterly and monthly series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting",
     "smooth 1.3.0 (Python)"
    ]
   },
   "limitations": [
    "L2",
    "L3"
   ],
   "assumptions": [
    "C25"
   ],
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "Confirmed on 4,500 series that did not suggest the hypothesis, with the same pattern on the benchmark (C13); the level ratio is a proxy for the growth of the scale (C25)."
    }
   ],
   "relations": [
    {
     "type": "addresses",
     "reference": "B5",
     "note": "Chatfield discusses why intervals are too narrow in general; this locates the shortfall of one implementation on series whose level has grown."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C3",
   "statement": "On the [[D6:M4 sample]], the [[D11:log-normal ARIMA]] with the orders [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] selects removes the fall of 80% [[D4:coverage]] over the [[D7:level terciles]] (0.774, 0.783 and 0.752, a spread of 0.031) and lowers [[D13:MCE]] from 0.0386 to 0.0177.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D11",
    "relation": "removes the fall of coverage over the level terciles and lowers the MCE of",
    "object": [
     "D4",
     "D13"
    ],
    "comparator": "D10",
    "conditions": [
     "D6"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "principal",
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E9",
     "results": [
      "E9.T1.r2",
      "E9.T1.r1"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H9",
    "outcome": "supported"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T18:40:25Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "4500 M4 series as in the plan of H8, same seed"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "sd": {
      "variable": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D6",
       "method": "D11"
      }
     },
     "md": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D6",
       "method": "D11"
      }
     },
     "ma": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D6",
       "method": "D10"
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "sd <= 0.05 and md <= 0.5*ma",
    "not_supported": "sd > 0.10 or md >= ma",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL13",
    "flags": [
     "code_changed_after_plan"
    ]
   },
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M4 yearly, quarterly and monthly series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting",
     "orders fixed at those AutoMSARIMA selects"
    ]
   },
   "limitations": [
    "L2"
   ],
   "depends_on": [
    "C2"
   ],
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "Planned test on series that did not suggest it; the same sample served the test of C8, and the gain in calibration comes with a higher pinball (C14)."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C4",
   "statement": "On known models, the [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] interval of smooth 1.3.0 is calibrated no worse than that of 1.0.8 ([[D21:smooth 1.0.8 and 1.3.0]]): at $T = 100$ in the [[D2:known-model simulation]] its [[D13:MCE]] is 0.0100 against 0.0120 with estimated parameters, 0.0139 against 0.0172 with selected orders and 0.0085 against 0.0246 with optimal initial states.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D10",
    "relation": "is calibrated no worse in 1.3.0 than in 1.0.8 on",
    "object": "D13",
    "comparator": "D21",
    "conditions": [
     "D2"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "principal",
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "simulation",
     "evidence": "E10",
     "results": [
      "E10.T1.r1",
      "E10.T1.r5",
      "E10.T1.r3",
      "E10.T1.r7",
      "E10.T1.r2",
      "E10.T1.r6"
     ],
     "artefacts": [
      "A4",
      "A8"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H10",
    "outcome": "supported"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T18:40:15Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "2000 replicates per cell, 11 DGPs, T=50,100,300, seed 20261105 in both versions; run 1 smooth 1.0.8 (v1.0.8-py), run 2 smooth 1.3.0"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "eb108": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "D21": "1.0.8"
      },
      "run": 1
     },
     "eb130": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "D21": "1.3.0"
      },
      "run": 2
     },
     "sb108": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "S",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "D21": "1.0.8"
      },
      "run": 1
     },
     "sb130": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "S",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "D21": "1.3.0"
      },
      "run": 2
     },
     "eo108": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "optimal",
       "D21": "1.0.8"
      },
      "run": 1
     },
     "eo130": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "optimal",
       "D21": "1.3.0"
      },
      "run": 2
     }
    },
    "supported": "eb130 <= eb108+0.001 and sb130 <= sb108+0.001 and eo130 <= eo108+0.001",
    "not_supported": "eb130 > eb108+0.005 or sb130 > sb108+0.005 or eo130 > eo108+0.005",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 2,
    "lab_plan": "PL11",
    "flags": [
     "code_changed_after_plan"
    ]
   },
   "depends_on": [
    "C9"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "simulated Gaussian ARIMA and SARIMA series",
    "conditions": [
     "holdout of 18",
     "T = 100",
     "cases E and S"
    ]
   },
   "limitations": [
    "L2",
    "L4"
   ],
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "high",
     "rationale": "Same seeds and processes in both versions, 2,000 replicates per process; the rule of PL11 was met in all three cases."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C5",
   "statement": "On the [[D9:fresh M4 sample]], [[D8:auto.adam error selection]] lowers [[D13:MCE]] from 0.0352 to 0.0224 and the spread of 80% [[D4:coverage]] over the [[D7:level terciles]] from 0.272 to 0.077 against R auto.msarima ([[D10:AutoMSARIMA]]), short of the planned reduction of MCE to 0.6 times that of auto.msarima, so the planned test is inconclusive.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D8",
    "relation": "lowers, short of the planned threshold, the calibration error of",
    "object": [
     "D13",
     "D4"
    ],
    "comparator": "D10",
    "conditions": [
     "D9"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "principal",
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E12",
     "results": [
      "E12.T1.r1",
      "E12.T1.r2"
     ],
     "artefacts": [
      "A6"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H11",
    "outcome": "inconclusive"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-09T17:07:13Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "4500 fresh M4 series, one run"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "ms": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D9",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "method": "D8"
      }
     },
     "ma": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D9",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "method": "D10"
      }
     },
     "ss": {
      "variable": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D9",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "method": "D8"
      }
     },
     "sa": {
      "variable": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D9",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "method": "D10"
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "ms <= 0.6*ma and ss <= 0.08",
    "not_supported": "ms >= ma or ss >= sa",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL15"
   },
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M4 yearly, quarterly and monthly series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting",
     "R smooth 4.6"
    ]
   },
   "limitations": [
    "L5",
    "L6"
   ],
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "Planned test on 4,500 series that did not suggest the hypothesis; the supported rule failed by 0.0013 of MCE and the refutation rule was not met."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C6",
   "type": "interpretive",
   "role": "principal",
   "statement": "The wider intervals of ETS than of [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] on the [[D5:benchmark]] come from the multiplicative-error models in the ETS pool of [[D15:ETS forced and selected]], not from how either package computes the interval.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D15",
    "relation": "has wider intervals because of its multiplicative-error models than",
    "object": "interval width",
    "comparator": "D10",
    "conditions": [
     "D5"
    ]
   },
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "argument",
     "warrant": "W1"
    }
   ],
   "depends_on": [
    "C10",
    "C11"
   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M1, M3 and Tourism series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting"
    ]
   },
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "An exploratory conclusion over two exploratory results on the benchmark, not tested on new data."
    }
   ],
   "planning": "exploratory",
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C7",
   "statement": "With estimated parameters in the [[D2:known-model simulation]], the [[D1:MSARIMA analytic interval]] and the simulated interval of the same fit have the same width and [[D13:MCE]] at $T$ of 50, 100 and 300 (widths 0.957 and 0.957, 0.981 and 0.980, 0.997 and 0.996; MCE 0.0196 and 0.0197, 0.0100 and 0.0100, 0.0026 and 0.0027).",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D1",
    "relation": "has the same width and calibration as the simulated interval in",
    "object": "D13",
    "comparator": "simulated interval",
    "conditions": [
     "D2"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "supporting",
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "simulation",
     "evidence": "E3",
     "results": [
      "E3.T1.r1",
      "E3.T1.r2",
      "E3.T1.r3",
      "E3.T1.r4",
      "E3.T1.r5",
      "E3.T1.r6"
     ],
     "artefacts": [
      "A8"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H3",
    "outcome": "supported"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T11:37:02Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "2000 replicates per cell, h=1..18, fixed seed 20261105, no interim analysis"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "wa50": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 50,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "analytic"
      }
     },
     "ws50": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 50,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "simulated interval"
      }
     },
     "ma50": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 50,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "analytic"
      }
     },
     "ms50": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 50,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "simulated interval"
      }
     },
     "wa100": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "analytic"
      }
     },
     "ws100": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "simulated interval"
      }
     },
     "ma100": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "analytic"
      }
     },
     "ms100": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "simulated interval"
      }
     },
     "wa300": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "analytic"
      }
     },
     "ws300": {
      "variable": "ratio of the 80% interval width to the theoretical width",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "simulated interval"
      }
     },
     "ma300": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "analytic"
      }
     },
     "ms300": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 300,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "interval": "simulated interval"
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "abs(ws50/wa50-1)<0.01 and abs(ms50-ma50)<0.003 and abs(ws100/wa100-1)<0.01 and abs(ms100-ma100)<0.003 and abs(ws300/wa300-1)<0.01 and abs(ms300-ma300)<0.003",
    "not_supported": "abs(ws50/wa50-1)>0.03 or abs(ms50-ma50)>0.01 or abs(ws100/wa100-1)>0.03 or abs(ms100-ma100)>0.01 or abs(ws300/wa300-1)>0.03 or abs(ms300-ma300)>0.01",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL6"
   },
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "simulated Gaussian ARIMA and SARIMA series",
    "conditions": [
     "holdout of 18",
     "smooth 1.3.0 (Python)",
     "case E",
     "backcasting"
    ]
   },
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "high",
     "rationale": "Paired on the same fits, 2,000 replicates per process; the rule of plan PL6 was met at each length."
    }
   ],
   "relations": [
    {
     "type": "addresses",
     "reference": "B6",
     "note": "Checks that the analytic variance of the implementation matches simulation from the same model."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C8",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "supporting",
   "statement": "On the 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series, the fall of 80% [[D4:coverage]] over the [[D7:level terciles]] is shared by [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] (0.786, 0.668, 0.590) and the [[D16:other ARIMA implementations]]: statsforecast AutoARIMA (0.789, 0.667, 0.589), pmdarima (0.770, 0.635, 0.582) and skforecast (0.781, 0.658, 0.585).",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D16",
    "relation": "share the fall of coverage over the level terciles with",
    "object": "D4",
    "comparator": "D10",
    "conditions": [
     "D5"
    ]
   },
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E13",
     "results": [
      "E13.T1.r1",
      "E13.T1.r2",
      "E13.T1.r3",
      "E13.T1.r4"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M1, M3 and Tourism series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting for smooth"
    ]
   },
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "assumptions": [
    "C25"
   ],
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "Exploratory, on the data that suggested the pattern; confirmed for AutoMSARIMA on M4 (C8)."
    }
   ],
   "planning": "exploratory",
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C9",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "supporting",
   "statement": "The width of the [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] interval on the [[D5:benchmark]] did not change between [[D21:smooth 1.0.8 and 1.3.0]]: the median ratio of the 80% widths of 1.3.0 over 1.0.8 is 1.000 with backcasting and with optimal initial states.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D10",
    "relation": "has an unchanged interval width between versions on",
    "object": "interval width",
    "comparator": "D21",
    "conditions": [
     "D5"
    ]
   },
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E17",
     "results": [
      "E17.T1.r1",
      "E17.T1.r2"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M1, M3 and Tourism series"
   },
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "Exploratory decomposition on all benchmark series."
    }
   ],
   "planning": "exploratory",
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C10",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "supporting",
   "statement": "On the 114 [[D5:benchmark]] series where the selected ETS(ANN) of [[D15:ETS forced and selected]] and the ARIMA(0,1,1) selected by [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] give the same forecast and width, the two have the same 80% [[D4:coverage]], 0.734.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D15",
    "relation": "has the same coverage, where the models coincide, as",
    "object": "D4",
    "comparator": "D10",
    "conditions": [
     "D5"
    ]
   },
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E13",
     "results": [
      "E13.T2.r1",
      "E13.T2.r2",
      "E13.T2.r3"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M1, M3 and Tourism series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting"
    ]
   },
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "limitations": [
    "L7"
   ],
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "An exploratory result on a small matched subset (L7)."
    }
   ],
   "planning": "exploratory",
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C11",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "supporting",
   "statement": "Forced on all 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series, ETS(MNN) of [[D15:ETS forced and selected]] has an 80% [[D4:coverage]] of 0.764, against 0.668 for ETS(ANN) and 0.695 for ARIMA(0,1,1).",
   "about": {
    "subject": "ETS(MNN)",
    "relation": "has a higher coverage than",
    "object": "D4",
    "comparator": "ETS(ANN) and ARIMA(0,1,1)",
    "conditions": [
     "D5"
    ]
   },
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E14",
     "results": [
      "E14.T1.r3",
      "E14.T1.r2",
      "E14.T1.r1"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M1, M3 and Tourism series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting"
    ]
   },
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "An exploratory result on every benchmark series."
    }
   ],
   "planning": "exploratory",
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C12",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "supporting",
   "statement": "R and Python give the same [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] interval on 500 [[D5:benchmark]] series: the median ratio of the 80% widths is 1.000, the same model is selected on every series and both have an 80% [[D4:coverage]] of 0.677.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D10",
    "relation": "gives the same interval in R and Python on",
    "object": "D4",
    "comparator": null,
    "conditions": [
     "D5"
    ]
   },
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E18",
     "results": [
      "E18.T1.r1"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "500 M1, M3 and Tourism series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting"
    ]
   },
   "novelty": "not_applicable",
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "Exploratory, a random sample of 500 series."
    }
   ],
   "planning": "exploratory",
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C13",
   "statement": "Whether selecting the orders with [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] loses little [[D4:coverage]] in the [[D2:known-model simulation]] at $T = 100$ was not settled: pooled cov80 with selected orders was 0.756, between the threshold for little loss (0.77) and that for a large loss (0.74).",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D10",
    "relation": "has a cov80 between 0.74 and 0.77, with selected orders, in",
    "object": "D4",
    "comparator": null,
    "conditions": [
     "D2"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "novelty": "extension",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "simulation",
     "evidence": "E2",
     "results": [
      "E2.T1.r1"
     ],
     "artefacts": [
      "A8"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H2",
    "outcome": "inconclusive"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T11:37:02Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "2000 replicates per cell, h=1..18, fixed seed 20261105, no interim analysis"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "s": {
      "variable": "D4",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "S",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "nominal level": 0.8
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "s >= 0.77",
    "not_supported": "s < 0.74",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL5"
   },
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "simulated Gaussian ARIMA and SARIMA series",
    "conditions": [
     "holdout of 18",
     "smooth 1.3.0 (Python)",
     "case S",
     "T = 100",
     "backcasting"
    ]
   },
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "The estimate is precise (2,000 replicates per process) but falls between the rules fixed in plan PL5."
    }
   ],
   "relations": [
    {
     "type": "extends",
     "reference": "B5",
     "note": "Chatfield lists model selection among the reasons intervals are too narrow; this measures it for AutoMSARIMA."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C14",
   "statement": "Estimating the parameters does not cost 6 points of 80% [[D4:coverage]] of the [[D1:MSARIMA analytic interval]] at $T = 100$ in the [[D2:known-model simulation]]: with the true orders, pooled cov80 is 0.800 with true parameters and 0.770 with estimated parameters, a loss of 3 points.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D1",
    "relation": "loses 3 points, not 6, of 80% coverage from parameter estimation in",
    "object": "D4",
    "comparator": null,
    "conditions": [
     "D2"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "novelty": "extension",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "simulation",
     "evidence": "E4",
     "results": [
      "E4.T1.r2",
      "E4.T1.r1"
     ],
     "artefacts": [
      "A8"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H4",
    "outcome": "not_supported"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T11:37:02Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "2000 replicates per cell, h=1..18, fixed seed 20261105, no interim analysis"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "t": {
      "variable": "D4",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "T",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "nominal level": 0.8
      }
     },
     "e": {
      "variable": "D4",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "nominal level": 0.8
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "t-e >= 0.06",
    "not_supported": "t-e < 0.03",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL7"
   },
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "simulated Gaussian ARIMA and SARIMA series",
    "conditions": [
     "holdout of 18",
     "smooth 1.3.0 (Python)",
     "cases T and E",
     "T = 100",
     "backcasting"
    ]
   },
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "high",
     "rationale": "The planned refutation rule of PL7 (loss under 3 points) was met with 2,000 replicates per process."
    }
   ],
   "relations": [
    {
     "type": "extends",
     "reference": "B5",
     "note": "Chatfield attributes narrow intervals partly to ignored parameter uncertainty; this sizes the effect at T = 100."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C15",
   "statement": "[[D12:reforecast]] does not improve on the [[D1:MSARIMA analytic interval]] of `predict()` in the [[D2:known-model simulation]] at $T = 100$ with estimated parameters: with backcasting its [[D13:MCE]] is 0.0265 against 0.0100 and its relative [[D14:scaled pinball]] 1.958 against 1.043; with optimal initial states its MCE is lower (0.0053 against 0.0085) but its relative pinball higher (1.396 against 1.058).",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D12",
    "relation": "does not improve on predict() in",
    "object": [
     "D13",
     "D14"
    ],
    "comparator": "D1",
    "conditions": [
     "D2"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "simulation",
     "evidence": "E5",
     "results": [
      "E5.T1.r1",
      "E5.T1.r2",
      "E5.T1.r3",
      "E5.T1.r4"
     ],
     "artefacts": [
      "A8"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H5",
    "outcome": "not_supported"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T11:37:02Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "2000 replicates per cell, h=1..18, fixed seed 20261105, no interim analysis"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "mb": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "forecast": "predict()"
      }
     },
     "rb": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "forecast": "reforecast"
      }
     },
     "pb": {
      "variable": "scaled pinball relative to the true model with true parameters",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "forecast": "predict()"
      }
     },
     "sb": {
      "variable": "scaled pinball relative to the true model with true parameters",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "forecast": "reforecast"
      }
     },
     "mo": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "optimal",
       "forecast": "predict()"
      }
     },
     "ro": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "optimal",
       "forecast": "reforecast"
      }
     },
     "po": {
      "variable": "scaled pinball relative to the true model with true parameters",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "optimal",
       "forecast": "predict()"
      }
     },
     "so": {
      "variable": "scaled pinball relative to the true model with true parameters",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "E",
       "initial states": "optimal",
       "forecast": "reforecast"
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "rb<mb and sb<=pb and ro<mo and so<=po",
    "not_supported": "rb>mb+0.002 or sb>pb*1.01 or ro>mo+0.002 or so>po*1.01",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL8"
   },
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "simulated Gaussian ARIMA and SARIMA series",
    "conditions": [
     "holdout of 18",
     "smooth 1.3.0 (Python)",
     "case E",
     "T = 100"
    ]
   },
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "high",
     "rationale": "The refutation rule of PL8 was met by a wide margin."
    }
   ],
   "relations": [
    {
     "type": "addresses",
     "reference": "B6",
     "note": "The book proposes reforecasting to include parameter uncertainty; this tests the implementation for ARIMA."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C16",
   "statement": "A fixed wrong model alone produces under-coverage of the size seen on the [[D5:benchmark]]: over 12 wrong models in the [[D2:known-model simulation]] at $T = 100$ the pooled 80% [[D4:coverage]] of the [[D1:MSARIMA analytic interval]] is 0.676 and its q50 0.428.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D1",
    "relation": "has a cov80 of the benchmark's size under a wrong model in",
    "object": "D4",
    "comparator": null,
    "conditions": [
     "D2"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "simulation",
     "evidence": "E6",
     "results": [
      "E6.T1.r1"
     ],
     "artefacts": [
      "A8"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H6",
    "outcome": "supported"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T11:37:03Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "2000 replicates per cell, h=1..18, fixed seed 20261105, no interim analysis"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "w": {
      "variable": "D4",
      "conditions": {
       "T": 100,
       "D3": "W",
       "nominal level": 0.8
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "w <= 0.72",
    "not_supported": "w >= 0.76",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL9"
   },
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "simulated Gaussian ARIMA and SARIMA series",
    "conditions": [
     "holdout of 18",
     "smooth 1.3.0 (Python)",
     "case W with 12 fixed wrong models",
     "T = 100",
     "backcasting"
    ]
   },
   "limitations": [
    "L1"
   ],
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "low",
     "rationale": "The 12 wrong models were chosen, not sampled from the mistakes selection makes (L1), so the size depends on that choice."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C17",
   "statement": "On the 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series, [[D12:reforecast]] does not close the gap of the 80% [[D4:coverage]] of [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]]: cov80 moves from 0.681 to 0.683 and its mean [[D14:scaled pinball]] is 7e191 against 0.899.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D12",
    "relation": "does not close the coverage gap of",
    "object": "D4",
    "comparator": "D10",
    "conditions": [
     "D5"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E7",
     "results": [
      "E7.T1.r1",
      "E7.T1.r2"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H7",
    "outcome": "not_supported"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-05T11:37:03Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "All 5,315 series, seed per series, nsim=300; run only after the verdict of the plan testing reforecast() in simulation"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "cp": {
      "variable": "D4",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D5",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "forecast": "predict()",
       "nominal level": 0.8
      }
     },
     "cr": {
      "variable": "D4",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D5",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "forecast": "D12",
       "nominal level": 0.8
      }
     },
     "pp": {
      "variable": "D14",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D5",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "forecast": "predict()"
      }
     },
     "pr": {
      "variable": "D14",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D5",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "forecast": "D12"
      }
     }
    },
    "supported": "cr-cp >= 0.5*(0.8-cp) and pr <= 1.01*pp",
    "not_supported": "cr-cp < 0.2*(0.8-cp) or pr > 1.05*pp",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL10"
   },
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M1, M3 and Tourism series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting",
     "smooth 1.3.0 (Python)"
    ]
   },
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "high",
     "rationale": "Every benchmark series was scored; the refutation rule of PL10 was met."
    }
   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C18",
   "statement": "The planned test of [[D8:auto.adam error selection]] against auto.msarima on the [[D9:fresh M4 sample]] under plan PL14 gave no result: its only run stopped on loading the M4 data, before any model was fitted.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D8",
    "relation": "was not compared, the run having failed, on",
    "object": null,
    "comparator": "auto.msarima",
    "conditions": [
     "D9"
    ]
   },
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "novelty": "not_applicable",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E11"
    }
   ],
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "hypothesis": {
    "lab_event": "H11",
    "outcome": "inconclusive"
   },
   "planning": "confirmatory",
   "planned_at": "2026-11-07T14:02:07Z",
   "planned_at_anchor": "git_remote",
   "test": {
    "framework": "deterministic",
    "parameters": {
     "sample": "4500 fresh M4 series, one run"
    },
    "quantities": {
     "ms": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D9",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "method": "D8"
      }
     },
     "ma": {
      "variable": "D13",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D9",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "method": "D10"
      }
     },
     "ss": {
      "variable": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D9",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "method": "D8"
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     },
     "sa": {
      "variable": "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
      "conditions": {
       "data": "D9",
       "initial states": "backcasting",
       "method": "D10"
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     }
    },
    "supported": "ms <= 0.6*ma and ss <= 0.08",
    "not_supported": "ms >= ma or ss >= sa",
    "verdict": "computed",
    "runs": 1,
    "lab_plan": "PL14"
   },
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M4 yearly, quarterly and monthly series"
   },
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "very_low",
     "rationale": "No result exists; the test was repeated under plan PL15 (C12)."
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   ],
   "verifiability": "open",
   "verifiability_flags": []
  },
  {
   "id": "C19",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "statement": "On the 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series, the [[D11:log-normal ARIMA]] with the selected orders raises the 80% [[D4:coverage]] of [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] from 0.681 to 0.756 and lowers [[D13:MCE]] from 0.0402 to 0.0124, but raises the median [[D14:scaled pinball]] from 0.496 to 0.551.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D11",
    "relation": "improves calibration but worsens the pinball of",
    "object": [
     "D4",
     "D13",
     "D14"
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    "comparator": "D10",
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     "D5"
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    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
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      "E15.T1.r1",
      "E15.T1.r2"
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   ],
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    "data_type": "M1, M3 and Tourism series",
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     "orders fixed at those AutoMSARIMA selects"
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   },
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
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    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "Exploratory on all benchmark series; the pinball cost repeats on M4 (0.675 to 0.768, E9)."
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   ],
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   "id": "C20",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "statement": "On the 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series, [[D8:auto.adam error selection]] chooses dlnorm for 64% of the series, raises 80% [[D4:coverage]] from 0.681 to 0.729, lowers [[D13:MCE]] from 0.0402 to 0.0187 and raises the median [[D14:scaled pinball]] from 0.496 to 0.514 against R auto.msarima ([[D10:AutoMSARIMA]]).",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D8",
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     "D4",
     "D13",
     "D14"
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    "conditions": [
     "D5"
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    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
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      "E16.T1.r1",
      "E16.T1.r2"
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      "A5"
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   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M1, M3 and Tourism series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting",
     "R smooth 4.6"
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   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
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    "L6"
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    {
     "by": "author",
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     "rationale": "Exploratory, every benchmark series; the planned repeat on fresh M4 series was inconclusive (C12)."
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   "id": "C21",
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   "role": "secondary",
   "statement": "Estimation and selection alone, as measured in the [[D2:known-model simulation]], predict an 80% [[D4:coverage]] of 0.717 for [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] at the lengths of the [[D5:benchmark]] series, against 0.801 with the true parameters.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D10",
    "relation": "is predicted from the simulation to cover",
    "object": "D4",
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     "D5"
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    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E19",
     "results": [
      "E19.T1.r3",
      "E19.T1.r1"
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   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "simulated series at the lengths of the M1, M3 and Tourism series",
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     "case S"
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   "limitations": [
    "L8"
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   "novelty": "extension",
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    {
     "type": "extends",
     "reference": "B5",
     "note": "Sizes the effect of estimation and selection on short series for one implementation."
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   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "low",
     "rationale": "Gaussian processes only, interpolated over length (L8); the benchmark's real error structure differs."
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   "id": "C22",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "statement": "On the [[D9:fresh M4 sample]], [[D8:auto.adam error selection]] has a higher [[D13:MCE]] than R auto.msarima ([[D10:AutoMSARIMA]]) in the lowest and highest [[D7:level terciles]] (0.041 against 0.035, and 0.105 against 0.076) and a lower one only in the middle tercile (0.020 against 0.041), so its lower overall MCE comes in part from errors of opposite sign in different series.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D8",
    "relation": "has a higher MCE within two of three level terciles than",
    "object": "D13",
    "comparator": "D10",
    "conditions": [
     "D9",
     "D7"
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   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E20",
     "results": [
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      "E20.T4.r4",
      "E20.T4.r5",
      "E20.T4.r6",
      "E20.T4.r7",
      "E20.T4.r8"
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     "artefacts": [
      "A6"
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   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M4 yearly, quarterly and monthly series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting",
     "R smooth 4.6"
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   },
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "Exploratory reading of the PL15 outputs; the same pattern holds on the benchmark in the low and high terciles (E20)."
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   ],
   "planning": "exploratory",
   "provenance": "author_stated",
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   "verifiability_flags": []
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  {
   "id": "C23",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "secondary",
   "statement": "On the 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series, the [[D13:MCE]] of [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] is 0.0402 with smooth 1.3.0 against 0.0326 with 1.0.8 ([[D21:smooth 1.0.8 and 1.3.0]]) with backcasting.",
   "about": {
    "subject": "D10",
    "relation": "has a higher benchmark MCE in 1.3.0 than in",
    "object": "D13",
    "comparator": "D21",
    "conditions": [
     "D5"
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   },
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "empirical_quant",
     "evidence": "E20",
     "results": [
      "E20.T2.r1",
      "E20.T2.r2"
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     "artefacts": [
      "A4"
     ]
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   ],
   "scope": {
    "data_type": "M1, M3 and Tourism series",
    "conditions": [
     "backcasting"
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   },
   "novelty": "no_prior_found",
   "assessments": [
    {
     "by": "author",
     "strength": "moderate",
     "rationale": "Exploratory; from the full 99-quantile curves of both versions on all benchmark series."
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   "planning": "exploratory",
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   "verifiability_flags": []
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  {
   "id": "C24",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "supporting",
   "statement": "The coverage of a set of series is well summarised by first averaging the holdout observations within each series and then averaging over series, all horizons together.",
   "support": [
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     "kind": "assumption"
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   "check": "unchecked",
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "verifiability": "not_applicable",
   "verifiability_flags": []
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  {
   "id": "C25",
   "type": "descriptive",
   "role": "supporting",
   "statement": "The ratio of the mean of the last third of a series to its overall mean indexes how much the scale of its errors at the forecast origin exceeds the average scale over the sample.",
   "support": [
    {
     "kind": "assumption"
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   "assumption_category": "data",
   "check": "unchecked",
   "provenance": "author_stated",
   "verifiability": "not_applicable",
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    "cases": [
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    "procedure": [
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    "lens": [
     "D4"
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   },
   "model": "The 11 Gaussian ARIMA and SARIMA processes and the IMA(1,1) with t(4) errors of the known-model simulation",
   "parameters": "A8",
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    "cases": [
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    "lens": [
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     "platform": "Linux-7.0.0-42-generic-x86_64-with-glibc2.43"
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   "tables": [
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   "description": "[[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] with backcasting and ETS(MNN) fitted to every series of the [[D6:M4 sample]]; cov80 per [[D7:level terciles]] (run RN41, plan PL12).",
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   "lab_runs": [
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    "cases": [
     "D6"
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    "lens": [
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     "D13",
     "D17"
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   "tables": [
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     "id": "T1",
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      {
       "variable": "D4",
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   "id": "E9",
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   "design": "benchmark",
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   "availability": {
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   "lab_runs": [
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   "setup": {
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     "D11"
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    "cases": [
     "D6"
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    "procedure": [
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    "lens": [
     "D4",
     "D13",
     "D14",
     "D17"
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   "execution": {
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     "platform": "Linux-7.0.0-42-generic-x86_64-with-glibc2.43"
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   },
   "tables": [
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     "id": "T1",
     "description": "AutoMSARIMA and the log-normal ARIMA with the same orders on the M4 sample",
     "conditions": {
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   "lab_runs": [
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   "setup": {
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    "procedure": [
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    "lens": [
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     "D13"
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    "context": [
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     "platform": "Linux-7.0.0-42-generic-x86_64-with-glibc2.43"
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   },
   "model": "The 11 Gaussian ARIMA and SARIMA processes and the IMA(1,1) with t(4) errors of the known-model simulation",
   "parameters": "A8",
   "runs": 2000,
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   "availability": {
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   "lab_runs": [
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   "setup": {
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    "lens": [
     "D13"
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   "description": "R auto.msarima ([[D10:AutoMSARIMA]]) and [[D8:auto.adam error selection]] fitted to the 4,500 series of the [[D9:fresh M4 sample]] with backcasting; 99 quantiles per series scored on the M4 holdouts; MCE, cov80 by [[D7:level terciles]], scaled pinball, and the share of series choosing dlnorm (run RN48, plan PL15, which repeats PL14 after its failed run).",
   "availability": {
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   "lab_runs": [
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   "setup": {
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     "D10"
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    "cases": [
     "D9"
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    "procedure": [
     "D7"
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    "lens": [
     "D4",
     "D13",
     "D14",
     "D17"
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   },
   "execution": {
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   "tables": [
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      "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
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   "availability": {
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   "lab_runs": [
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   "setup": {
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     "D15"
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    "cases": [
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    "procedure": [
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    "lens": [
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     "D17"
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     "artefact": "A10"
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    {
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     "row_labels": [
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     "columns": [
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   "id": "E14",
   "profile": "quant",
   "design": "benchmark",
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   "availability": {
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   "lab_runs": [
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   "setup": {
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    "cases": [
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    "lens": [
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   },
   "tables": [
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     "id": "T1",
     "description": "80% coverage of forced and selected models on all 5,315 benchmark series, backcasting",
     "conditions": {
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     "row_labels": [
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     "columns": [
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      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "ARIMA(0,1,1)"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.6951
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "ETS(ANN)"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.6681
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r3",
       "label": [
        "ETS(MNN)"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.7635
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r4",
       "label": [
        "ETS, selected"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.7492
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r5",
       "label": [
        "ARIMA, selected"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.6812
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    }
   ],
   "artefacts": [
    "A10"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "E15",
   "profile": "quant",
   "design": "benchmark",
   "description": "[[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] and the [[D11:log-normal ARIMA]] with the same selected orders on the 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series, backcasting; cov80, MCE, scaled pinball and cov80 per [[D7:level terciles]] (exploratory run RN38).",
   "availability": {
    "level": "public"
   },
   "lab_runs": [
    "RN38"
   ],
   "setup": {
    "studied": [
     "D10",
     "D11"
    ],
    "cases": [
     "D5"
    ],
    "procedure": [
     "D7"
    ],
    "lens": [
     "D4",
     "D13",
     "D14",
     "D17"
    ]
   },
   "execution": {
    "code_version": "90d726121ac928d8cfc9ad77a0b60d99fa28334b",
    "software": {
     "python": "3.14.4",
     "platform": "Linux-7.0.0-42-generic-x86_64-with-glibc2.43"
    }
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "id": "T1",
     "description": "AutoMSARIMA and the log-normal ARIMA with the same orders on the benchmark, backcasting",
     "conditions": {
      "data": "D5",
      "initial states": "backcasting"
     },
     "row_labels": [
      "method"
     ],
     "columns": [
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8
       }
      },
      "D13",
      {
       "variable": "D14",
       "statistic": "median"
      },
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8,
        "D7": "low"
       }
      },
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8,
        "D7": "mid"
       }
      },
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8,
        "D7": "high"
       }
      },
      {
       "variable": "D14",
       "statistic": "mean"
      }
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "D10"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.6812,
        0.04024,
        0.4959,
        0.7862,
        0.6677,
        0.5897,
        0.8991
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "D11"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.7563,
        0.01244,
        0.5507,
        0.7493,
        0.7514,
        0.7683,
        1.0916
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    }
   ],
   "artefacts": [
    "A10"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "E16",
   "profile": "quant",
   "design": "benchmark",
   "description": "R auto.msarima ([[D10:AutoMSARIMA]]) and [[D8:auto.adam error selection]] on the 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series, backcasting; 99 quantiles per series; MCE, cov80 by [[D7:level terciles]], scaled pinball and the share choosing dlnorm (exploratory run RN45). Run in R because Python's AutoADAM removes dlnorm from the candidate distributions of a pure ARIMA whatever the user passes.",
   "availability": {
    "level": "public"
   },
   "lab_runs": [
    "RN45"
   ],
   "setup": {
    "studied": [
     "D8",
     "D10"
    ],
    "cases": [
     "D5"
    ],
    "procedure": [
     "D7"
    ],
    "lens": [
     "D4",
     "D13",
     "D14",
     "D17"
    ]
   },
   "execution": {
    "code_version": "5ca96a0fb806fcabad975937952e4a1330c3759d",
    "software": {
     "python": "3.14.4",
     "platform": "Linux-7.0.0-42-generic-x86_64-with-glibc2.43"
    }
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "id": "T1",
     "description": "R auto.msarima and auto.adam error selection on the benchmark, backcasting",
     "conditions": {
      "data": "D5",
      "initial states": "backcasting"
     },
     "row_labels": [
      "method"
     ],
     "columns": [
      "series fitted",
      "series that failed",
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8
       }
      },
      "share of holdout observations at or below the 0.1 quantile",
      "share of holdout observations at or below the 0.5 quantile",
      "share of holdout observations at or below the 0.9 quantile",
      "D13",
      {
       "variable": "D14",
       "statistic": "mean"
      },
      {
       "variable": "D14",
       "statistic": "median"
      },
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8,
        "D7": "low"
       }
      },
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8,
        "D7": "mid"
       }
      },
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8,
        "D7": "high"
       }
      },
      "range of the 80% coverage over the level terciles",
      "share of series for which dlnorm is selected"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "D8"
       ],
       "values": [
        5315.0,
        0.0,
        0.7291,
        0.1421,
        0.5024,
        0.8712,
        0.01866,
        0.9225,
        0.5137,
        0.7539,
        0.7102,
        0.7233,
        0.04363,
        0.642
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "D10"
       ],
       "values": [
        5315.0,
        0.0,
        0.6812,
        0.1436,
        0.4703,
        0.8248,
        0.04024,
        0.8991,
        0.4959,
        0.7862,
        0.6674,
        0.59,
        0.1962,
        0.0
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    },
    {
     "id": "T2",
     "description": "The same by the error distribution selected",
     "conditions": {
      "data": "D5",
      "initial states": "backcasting"
     },
     "row_labels": [
      "method",
      "selected distribution"
     ],
     "columns": [
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8
       }
      },
      "D13"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "D8",
        "dlnorm"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.7503,
        0.02725
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "D8",
        "dnorm"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.6912,
        0.04425
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r3",
       "label": [
        "D10",
        "dnorm"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.6812,
        0.04024
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    }
   ],
   "artefacts": [
    "A10"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "E17",
   "profile": "quant",
   "design": "benchmark",
   "description": "[[D10:AutoMSARIMA]] forecasts of the 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series with [[D21:smooth 1.0.8 and 1.3.0]] decomposed in stages: A, 1.0.8; D, 1.3.0 with the parameters of A; B, 1.3.0 with the orders of A; C, 1.3.0. Width ratios are medians over series of the 80% interval width of the later stage over the earlier one (exploratory run RN20 on runs RN16 to RN19).",
   "availability": {
    "level": "public"
   },
   "lab_runs": [
    "RN20"
   ],
   "setup": {
    "studied": [
     "D10"
    ],
    "cases": [
     "D5"
    ],
    "lens": [
     "D4"
    ],
    "context": [
     "D21"
    ]
   },
   "execution": {
    "code_version": "dfc53621aff77ab213ff5e6ea548255bfd1faa51",
    "software": {
     "python": "3.14.4",
     "platform": "Linux-7.0.0-42-generic-x86_64-with-glibc2.43"
    }
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "id": "T1",
     "description": "Stages of the change from smooth 1.0.8 to 1.3.0 on the benchmark",
     "conditions": {
      "data": "D5"
     },
     "row_labels": [
      "initial states",
      "stage"
     ],
     "columns": [
      "median ratio of the 80% interval width of the later stage to the earlier",
      "change of 80% coverage",
      "share of selected models with drift"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "backcasting",
        "A->C"
       ],
       "values": [
        1.0,
        -0.01894,
        null
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "optimal",
        "A->C"
       ],
       "values": [
        1.0,
        null,
        null
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r3",
       "label": [
        "backcasting",
        "A->D"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.9871,
        null,
        null
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r4",
       "label": [
        "backcasting",
        "C"
       ],
       "values": [
        null,
        null,
        0.2476
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r5",
       "label": [
        "backcasting",
        "A"
       ],
       "values": [
        null,
        null,
        0.3087
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    }
   ],
   "artefacts": [
    "A10"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "E18",
   "profile": "quant",
   "design": "benchmark",
   "description": "500 [[D5:benchmark]] series drawn with seed 41: R msarima with the orders Python selected, and R auto.msarima against Python [[D10:AutoMSARIMA]], backcasting; ratio of the 80% interval widths and coverage (exploratory run RN37).",
   "availability": {
    "level": "public"
   },
   "lab_runs": [
    "RN37"
   ],
   "setup": {
    "studied": [
     "D10"
    ],
    "cases": [
     "D5"
    ],
    "lens": [
     "D4"
    ]
   },
   "execution": {
    "code_version": "90d726121ac928d8cfc9ad77a0b60d99fa28334b",
    "software": {
     "python": "3.14.4",
     "platform": "Linux-7.0.0-42-generic-x86_64-with-glibc2.43"
    }
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "id": "T1",
     "description": "R against Python AutoMSARIMA on 500 benchmark series drawn with seed 41, backcasting",
     "row_labels": [],
     "columns": [
      "median ratio of the R to the Python 80% interval width",
      "share of series where R and Python select the same model",
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8,
        "implementation": "R"
       }
      },
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8,
        "implementation": "Python"
       }
      }
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [],
       "values": [
        1.0,
        1.0,
        0.6766,
        0.6766
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    }
   ],
   "artefacts": [
    "A10"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "E19",
   "profile": "quant",
   "design": "other",
   "description": "Coverage the [[D2:known-model simulation]] predicts at the lengths of the 5,315 [[D5:benchmark]] series: the pooled cov80 of each case of [[D3:cases T, E, S, W]] interpolated on log T at each series length (lengths below 15 and above 300 at the nearest size) and averaged over the series (exploratory run RN40 on runs RN8, RN11, RN39).",
   "availability": {
    "level": "public"
   },
   "lab_runs": [
    "RN40"
   ],
   "setup": {
    "studied": [
     "D10"
    ],
    "cases": [
     "D2",
     "D5"
    ],
    "procedure": [
     "D3"
    ],
    "lens": [
     "D4"
    ]
   },
   "execution": {
    "code_version": "7780f6f0f709897fdb9fa41608d4497cad9cf21a",
    "software": {
     "python": "3.14.4",
     "platform": "Linux-7.0.0-42-generic-x86_64-with-glibc2.43"
    }
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "id": "T1",
     "description": "80% coverage the known-model simulation predicts at the lengths of the benchmark series",
     "conditions": {
      "data": "D5"
     },
     "row_labels": [
      "D3"
     ],
     "columns": [
      {
       "variable": "D4",
       "conditions": {
        "nominal level": 0.8
       }
      }
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "T"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.8012
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "E"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.725
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r3",
       "label": [
        "S"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.7169
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    }
   ],
   "artefacts": [
    "A10"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "E20",
   "profile": "quant",
   "design": "benchmark",
   "description": "MCE of each calibration curve of the 99 quantiles drawn from recorded outputs: the [[D2:known-model simulation]] (runs RN8, RN11, RN39), [[D21:smooth 1.0.8 and 1.3.0]] (RN16, RN19, RN43, RN44), the [[D5:benchmark]] (RN45 and the saved ETS benchmark) and the [[D9:fresh M4 sample]] (RN48), overall and by [[D7:level terciles]] (exploratory run RN49).",
   "availability": {
    "level": "public"
   },
   "lab_runs": [
    "RN49"
   ],
   "setup": {
    "studied": [
     "D10",
     "D8",
     "D15"
    ],
    "cases": [
     "D2",
     "D5",
     "D9"
    ],
    "procedure": [
     "D7"
    ],
    "lens": [
     "D13"
    ]
   },
   "execution": {
    "code_version": "5ca96a0fb806fcabad975937952e4a1330c3759d",
    "software": {
     "python": "3.14.4",
     "platform": "Linux-7.0.0-42-generic-x86_64-with-glibc2.43"
    }
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "id": "T1",
     "description": "MCE of each curve of figure A3",
     "row_labels": [
      "panel",
      "line"
     ],
     "columns": [
      "D13"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "T=15",
        "true parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.01439
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "T=15",
        "estimated parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.06533
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r3",
       "label": [
        "T=15",
        "selected orders"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.05793
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r4",
       "label": [
        "T=25",
        "true parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.006361
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r5",
       "label": [
        "T=25",
        "estimated parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.03414
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r6",
       "label": [
        "T=25",
        "selected orders"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.03659
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r7",
       "label": [
        "T=50",
        "true parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.001008
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r8",
       "label": [
        "T=50",
        "estimated parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.01962
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r9",
       "label": [
        "T=50",
        "selected orders"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.02353
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r10",
       "label": [
        "T=100",
        "true parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.002348
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r11",
       "label": [
        "T=100",
        "estimated parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.009999
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r12",
       "label": [
        "T=100",
        "selected orders"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.01388
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r13",
       "label": [
        "T=300",
        "true parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.0006806
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r14",
       "label": [
        "T=300",
        "estimated parameters"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.002644
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r15",
       "label": [
        "T=300",
        "selected orders"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.004572
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    },
    {
     "id": "T2",
     "description": "MCE of each curve of figure A4",
     "row_labels": [
      "panel",
      "line"
     ],
     "columns": [
      "D13"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "benchmark, backcasting",
        "1.0.8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.03258
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "benchmark, backcasting",
        "1.3.0"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.04024
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r3",
       "label": [
        "benchmark, optimal",
        "1.0.8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.03312
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r4",
       "label": [
        "benchmark, optimal",
        "1.3.0"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.03899
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r5",
       "label": [
        "simulation T=100, true parameters",
        "1.0.8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.01229
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r6",
       "label": [
        "simulation T=100, true parameters",
        "1.3.0"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.002348
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r7",
       "label": [
        "simulation T=100, estimated",
        "1.0.8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.01202
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r8",
       "label": [
        "simulation T=100, estimated",
        "1.3.0"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.009999
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r9",
       "label": [
        "simulation T=100, selected",
        "1.0.8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.01724
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r10",
       "label": [
        "simulation T=100, selected",
        "1.3.0"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.01388
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    },
    {
     "id": "T3",
     "description": "MCE of each curve of figure A5",
     "row_labels": [
      "panel",
      "line"
     ],
     "columns": [
      "D13"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "all series",
        "D10"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.04024
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "all series",
        "D8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.01866
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r3",
       "label": [
        "all series",
        "ETS (AutoADAM ZXZ, saved)"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.04424
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r4",
       "label": [
        "low level tercile",
        "D10"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.0281
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r5",
       "label": [
        "low level tercile",
        "D8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.0334
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r6",
       "label": [
        "mid level tercile",
        "D10"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.05052
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r7",
       "label": [
        "mid level tercile",
        "D8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.03523
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r8",
       "label": [
        "high level tercile",
        "D10"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.0623
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r9",
       "label": [
        "high level tercile",
        "D8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.06547
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r10",
       "label": [
        "auto.adam by selected distribution",
        "chose dnorm"
       ],
       "values": [
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       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r11",
       "label": [
        "auto.adam by selected distribution",
        "chose dlnorm"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.02725
       ]
      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
    },
    {
     "id": "T4",
     "description": "MCE of each curve of figure A6",
     "row_labels": [
      "panel",
      "line"
     ],
     "columns": [
      "D13"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "id": "r1",
       "label": [
        "all series",
        "D10"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.0352
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r2",
       "label": [
        "all series",
        "D8"
       ],
       "values": [
        0.02236
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r3",
       "label": [
        "low level tercile",
        "D10"
       ],
       "values": [
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      },
      {
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       "label": [
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       ],
       "values": [
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       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r5",
       "label": [
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        "D10"
       ],
       "values": [
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       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r6",
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       ],
       "values": [
        0.02004
       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r7",
       "label": [
        "high level tercile",
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       ],
       "values": [
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       ]
      },
      {
       "id": "r8",
       "label": [
        "high level tercile",
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       "values": [
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       "values": [
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      },
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      }
     ],
     "artefact": "A10"
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   ],
   "artefacts": [
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   ]
  }
 ],
 "warrants": [
  {
   "id": "W1",
   "reasoning": "abductive",
   "premises": [
    "C10",
    "C11"
   ],
   "text": "Where ETS and ARIMA reduce to the same model, their intervals coincide and cover the same share (C17), so the interval computations agree; the additive ETS(ANN) forced on every series covers no more than ARIMA(0,1,1), while the multiplicative ETS(MNN) covers 0.07 to 0.10 more (C22). The difference between the pools is therefore the multiplicative-error models, which AutoMSARIMA does not have."
  }
 ],
 "limitations": [
  {
   "id": "L1",
   "category": "sampling",
   "statement": "The 12 wrong models of case W were chosen by the authors, not drawn from the mistakes AutoMSARIMA makes, so the size of the coverage loss they produce depends on that choice.",
   "affects": [
    "C16"
   ],
   "impact": "could_bias_magnitude",
   "mitigation": "none"
  },
  {
   "id": "L2",
   "category": "other",
   "statement": "The lab record flags plans PL11, PL12 and PL13 with code changed after the plan; the only commit between those plans and their runs updated the claimset skills under .claude/skills, not the analysis scripts.",
   "affects": [
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C4"
   ],
   "impact": "reduces_precision",
   "mitigation": "none"
  },
  {
   "id": "L3",
   "category": "measurement",
   "statement": "ETS(MNN), the comparator whose coverage stays flat over the level terciles on M4, is badly centred there (q50 of 0.372) and has an MCE of 0.0849, so its flat cov80 does not make it well calibrated.",
   "affects": [
    "C2"
   ],
   "impact": "reduces_transferability",
   "mitigation": "none"
  },
  {
   "id": "L4",
   "category": "computational",
   "statement": "smooth 1.0.8 ran from a separate worktree at tag v1.0.8-py with its own Python environment, so the versions also differ in the environment around the package.",
   "affects": [
    "C4"
   ],
   "impact": "could_bias_magnitude",
   "mitigation": "none"
  },
  {
   "id": "L5",
   "category": "computational",
   "statement": "The auto.adam comparison ran in R, because Python's AutoADAM removes dlnorm from the candidate distributions of a pure ARIMA whatever the user passes, while R's auto.adam removes it only from its default list.",
   "affects": [
    "C5",
    "C20"
   ],
   "impact": "reduces_transferability",
   "mitigation": "none"
  },
  {
   "id": "L6",
   "category": "analytic_flexibility",
   "statement": "The thresholds of plan PL15 were fixed after the exploratory benchmark run of auto.adam (RN45) was seen, on M4 series that run did not use.",
   "affects": [
    "C5"
   ],
   "impact": "could_bias_magnitude",
   "mitigation": "none"
  },
  {
   "id": "L7",
   "category": "sample_size",
   "statement": "The series where the selected ETS(ANN) and ARIMA(0,1,1) give the same forecast and width are 114 of 5,315.",
   "affects": [
    "C10"
   ],
   "impact": "reduces_precision",
   "mitigation": "none"
  },
  {
   "id": "L8",
   "category": "model_specification",
   "statement": "The prediction of coverage at the benchmark lengths uses Gaussian processes and interpolates the simulated coverage over log length, with lengths outside 15 to 300 at the nearest simulated size.",
   "affects": [
    "C21"
   ],
   "impact": "could_bias_magnitude",
   "mitigation": "none"
  }
 ],
 "artefacts": [
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   "availability": {
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   },
   "description": "Written record of the investigation up to plan PL13 (questions Q1 to Q5), each number taken from a recorded run."
  },
  {
   "id": "A2",
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  },
  {
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   "encoding": {
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   "description": "Calibration curves of the 99 quantiles on the 5,315 benchmark series: auto.msarima, auto.adam with error selection and the selected ETS, overall, by level tercile and by the distribution auto.adam chose."
  },
  {
   "id": "A6",
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   },
   "description": "Calibration curves of the 99 quantiles on the fresh M4 sample: auto.msarima and auto.adam with error selection, overall, by level tercile and by the distribution auto.adam chose."
  },
  {
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   "kind": "lab_record",
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   "description": "Lab record of the study (branch claimset/msarima-interval-calibration): questions, hypotheses, plans, approvals, runs, results and notes as an append-only, hash-chained event log (lab record 0.20, claimset 0.39.0)."
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  {
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   "description": "Scripts of the study: simulation (q1_*), version decomposition (q2_*), benchmark analyses (q3_*), M4 (q4_m4.py), auto.adam in R and the calibration curves (q5_*)."
  },
  {
   "id": "A9",
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   "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
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   "description": "Every result recorded in the lab record (A7), one row per result: the lab result ID, the run that produced it, the quantity as the analysis script names it, its conditions as JSON and its full-precision value. The tables of the evidence objects hold these values rounded to four significant digits and at least four decimals.",
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 "references": [
  {
   "id": "B1",
   "target": "10.1002/for.3980010202",
   "id_type": "doi"
  },
  {
   "id": "B2",
   "target": "10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00057-1",
   "id_type": "doi"
  },
  {
   "id": "B3",
   "target": "10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.04.009",
   "id_type": "doi"
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  {
   "id": "B4",
   "target": "10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.014",
   "id_type": "doi"
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   "target": "10.1080/07350015.1993.10509938",
   "id_type": "doi"
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   "id": "B6",
   "target": "10.1201/9781003452652",
   "id_type": "doi",
   "self": true
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 ],
 "open_questions": [
  {
   "id": "O1",
   "question": "Why do the quantiles of auto.adam with error selection lie too high, by about 0.08 to 0.13 of coverage between the 0.2 and 0.6 quantiles, on the series of the highest level tercile, and would a model of the location of grown series correct it?",
   "claims": [
    "C5",
    "C22"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "O2",
   "question": "Why do the parameter draws of reforecast() give explosive or several times too wide intervals for ARIMA models with a constant or AR terms, differently in R and Python?",
   "claims": [
    "C15",
    "C17"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "O3",
   "question": "Would AutoMSARIMA calibrate better with error selection than with a fixed log-normal error once the location error of grown series is addressed, given that the fixed log-normal error costs 11% of median pinball on the benchmark?",
   "claims": [
    "C3",
    "C19",
    "C20"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "O4",
   "question": "Which of the changes between smooth 1.0.8 and 1.3.0 that alter model selection (fewer drift models chosen with backcasting) makes the benchmark calibration of AutoMSARIMA worse while its calibration on known models improves?",
   "claims": [
    "C4",
    "C23"
   ]
  }
 ]
}