EntryLib: recently published

EntryLib: recently publishedhttps://entrylib.org/feed.xml2026-11-11T00:00:00ZWhat MuseScore users ask for: unmet needs around arranging and partshttps://entrylib.org/p/2026.000004@v12026-11-11T00:00:00ZIvan Svetunkov

Requests in the arranging and instrumentation theme make up less than 10% of MuseScore feature requests: the share of issues in theme was 0.0459 on the held-out set.

The observed-data likelihood of ADAM and iETS with unobserved periodshttps://entrylib.org/p/2026.000003@v22026-11-11T00:00:00ZIvan Svetunkov

For a model of intermittent demand $y_t=o_tz_t$ with Bernoulli occurrence $o_t\sim\text{Bernoulli}(p_t)$ independent of a positive continuous size $z_t$, the observed-data likelihood is $$\sum_{O_t=1}\log f(z_t\mid Y_{t-1};\theta) + \sum_{O_t=1}\log p_t + \sum_{O_t=0}\log(1-p_t),$$ in which the unobserved sizes do not appear and the size and occurrence parts separate.

Admissibility of lagged state space models through the ARIMA form of the whole modelhttps://entrylib.org/p/2026.000002@v32026-11-10T00:00:00ZIvan Svetunkov

On 500 random additive ETS and GUM models, the admissibility decision from the roots of the MA polynomial after cyclotomic cancellation differed from the PBH reference on 0 models, and on the 172 models that both found inadmissible the largest mode modulus differed from the reference by at most 4.4e-13.

Calibration of the prediction intervals of AutoMSARIMA in smooth on M1, M3, Tourism and M4https://entrylib.org/p/2026.000001@v32026-11-10T00:00:00ZIvan Svetunkov

With the true orders and true parameters, the MSARIMA analytic interval is calibrated over the 99 quantiles in the known-model simulation at $T$ of 100 and 300: MCE lies between 0.0007 and 0.0024 and the ratio of the interval width to the theoretical width between 0.9965 and 1.0019, with backcasting and with optimal initial states.